Jakarta – The international research institute Ipsos Public Affairs held a face-to-face survey to capture the development and electoral dynamics ahead of the presidential and vice-presidential candidate elections. The survey was conducted from December 27 to January 5 and was spread across 34 provinces in Indonesia. The survey reached 2000 respondents who were 17 years old or married. The data collection method used multistage random sampling, face-to-face interviews using the Ipsos Ifield Computer-Assisted Personal Interviews (CAPI) application. Margin Error: ±2.19% with a 95% confidence level.
“In the midst of the presidential election, with only a few weeks left, voter dynamics are experiencing a shift and have a significant impact on the electoral competition map,” said political observer and senior researcher at Ipsos Public Affairs Arif Nurul Imam in his presentation in Jakarta (10/01/2024).
This presidential election, according to Arif, the effect of Jokowi is becoming more apparent as evidenced by the increasing electability of the Prabowo-Gibran pair. Especially the Jokowi-Ma’ruf 2019 voters are increasingly supporting this second candidate pair.
Meanwhile, the highest support solidity for the presidential candidate pair is in the Prabowo-Gibran pair where only 13 percent can still change, while there are 15 percent of supporters of the Anies-Muhaimin pair that can still shift. Meanwhile, the Ganjar-Mahfud pair has 20 percent supporters who can still shift.
“Compared to the survey data at the end of November, Prabowo-Gibran again experienced an increase from 42.66 percent to 48.05 percent, while Anies-Muhaimin tended to stagnate from 22.13 to 21.80 percent, and Ganjar-Mahfud from 22.95 to 18.35 percent, while those who have not yet decided decreased slightly from 12.26 to 11.80 percent,” he said.
If we relate the increase in public satisfaction with the performance of the Jokowi-Ma’ruf government at the moment, Arif continued, from 65 percent in November to 74 percent in December, then this can be read that any presidential and vice-presidential candidate who is considered to continue the government’s work programs of Jokowi-Ma’ruf are likely to get the Jokowi effect in terms of electability.
Meanwhile, Deputy Director of Ipsos Public Affairs, Sukma Widyanti, expressed surprise at the political party electability data, where Gerindra occupies the top position, displacing PDI Perjuangan. “Successive political parties that are potentially entering parliament are the Gerindra Party which has reached an electability of up to 27%; followed by PDI Perjuangan at 21%, Golkar 8%, PKB 7%, PKS 7%, Nasdem 6%, PAN 4%, Democrat 3%. The positions of PPP and PSI are still not secure as they have now decreased compared to the previous survey,” said Sukma in her presentation.
“This survey also shows that in the PDI Perjuangan base, especially in Central Java, which is referred to as the banteng’s cage, Ganjar’s voice is increasingly eroded,” she said in her virtual presentation.
In addition to being a member of the Indonesian Public Opinion Survey Association (Persepi), Ipsos is also a member of the Association for Global Research Agency Worldwide (ESOMAR), an international research association that periodically audits its members.
For your information, Ipsos is an internationally experienced research institute in the global arena. Headquartered in France, the institute operates in 90 countries and is known for conducting market research as well as social and political research, including in Indonesia. (SENOPATI)
Source: https://prabowosubianto.com/selangkah-lagi-meraih-kursi-istana/
